Experts are predicting an extremely active 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, with a higher-than-average chance of major hurricanes making landfall. Here’s a breakdown of the predictions and some references for further reading:
-
Activity Level: Forecasters predict a well-above-average season. Colorado State University (CSU) predicts 23 named storms, 11 of which will become hurricanes, and 5 reaching major hurricane status (Category 3 or stronger) CBS News: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/atlantic-hurricane-season-2024-predictions-colorado-state/. This is significantly higher than the 1991-2020 average of 14.4 named storms.
-
Landfall Probability: The CSU report also predicts a much higher chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. coastline (62%) compared to the historical average (43%). The Caribbean is also forecast to see an increased likelihood of major hurricane impact. Yale Climate Connections: https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/04/forecasters-predict-an-extremely-active-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season/
-
Contributing Factors: Two main factors are expected to fuel this active season:
- La Niña conditions – La Niña typically reduces wind shear, which allows storms to develop and strengthen more easily.
- Warm Atlantic Ocean temperatures – Warmer water provides more energy for storms to form and intensify. [invalid URL removed]
It’s important to remember:
- These are just predictions, and the actual number and intensity of storms can vary.
- The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30.
Here are some resources for staying informed throughout the season:
Posted 4/9/24
